Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.289700 0.334977 0.384261 0.441791 0.507001 0.578518 0.662783
2025-06-29 0.212067 0.268290 0.334459 0.417720 0.519299 0.638780 0.789513
2025-07-06 0.157340 0.216994 0.292610 0.394686 0.527955 0.695006 0.919063
2025-07-13 0.126373 0.189234 0.274703 0.397887 0.569046 0.796318 1.118329
2025-07-20 0.099234 0.161291 0.251716 0.390625 0.595534 0.882918 1.311607
2025-07-27 0.080883 0.142302 0.237934 0.393971 0.637366 0.996383 1.557696
2025-08-03 0.066858 0.127068 0.227012 0.399737 0.683718 1.122762 1.839629
2025-08-10 0.051656 0.106399 0.203477 0.381379 0.689801 1.189513 2.041184
2025-08-17 0.039177 0.087558 0.179248 0.357350 0.682607 1.234131 2.213706
2025-08-24 0.031311 0.075626 0.165030 0.348356 0.699569 1.320311 2.464706
2025-08-31 0.025119 0.065521 0.152190 0.339501 0.715224 1.405999 2.725133
2025-09-07 0.021523 0.060237 0.148042 0.346980 0.762669 1.553959 3.112331
2025-09-14 0.016689 0.050760 0.133237 0.330598 0.762757 1.618543 3.363569
2025-09-21 0.013308 0.043902 0.122770 0.321598 0.776659 1.711754 3.681158
2025-09-28 0.010522 0.037704 0.112363 0.310623 0.784629 1.794553 3.989461
2025-10-05 0.009084 0.034996 0.110186 0.318956 0.836943 1.974766 4.513623
2025-10-12 0.007531 0.031339 0.104542 0.317483 0.866496 2.110905 4.963349
2025-10-19 0.006484 0.028999 0.102047 0.323809 0.915895 2.296529 5.538741
2025-10-26 0.005631 0.027029 0.100157 0.331468 0.969958 2.499316 6.173627
2025-11-02 0.004454 0.023249 0.091535 0.318100 0.968008 2.573408 6.532099
2025-11-09 0.003417 0.019507 0.081855 0.299285 0.948264 2.602822 6.792471
2025-11-16 0.002784 0.017234 0.076561 0.292823 0.961297 2.713308 7.253377
2025-11-23 0.002265 0.015221 0.071571 0.286170 0.972667 2.821034 7.719309